In what some are calling its most drastic cut in emissions to date, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced new rules for automakers to meet to reduce the emissions of new vehicles through 2032. The goal, as even President Joe Biden himself has said, is to get more people into electric vehicles and further decarbonize the transportation sector.

As is usual when the EPA sets new, tighter standards, there already is a chorus of critics slamming various aspects of the rules, claiming either they're not feasible, or they will tank the economy, or give China an edge somehow. Let's take a step back and see what the proposed rules really are and some of the realities of how the automotive industry already works within our current EPA standards.

New Rules, Who Dis?

There is no hiding what these new EPA rules are trying to do. When it comes to a new car or truck, the Biden Administration wants it to be powered by anything that isn't carbon-based. Right now, the cleanest form of vehicle power (as determined at the tailpipe, or lack thereof) is, you guessed it, electric, even if it gets its charge from an all-coal sourced form of electrical power generation.

The President separately has a goal to shift America to 100 percent clean electrical energy by 2035, while there will be a net-zero of carbon emissions by 2050. Again, that's if and, honestly, will be a big "if." This is America, after all, and the Presidency changes hands now and then, and regulations can be lobbied against or changed by future politicians and rule makers. Citizens, too, can apply political pressure to the EPA via public comment forums and such. What we're saying is this: These rules are written more in dry-erase marker, not etched in stone. We'll begin by going over the rules as they are set for today, then cover the changes—the other way around is just too confusing.

The First Hurdle

Let's dive into the first problem these new rules will face: public comment. By going to regulations.gov and looking for Docket ID Number EPA-HQ-OAR-2022-0829, you can enter your own comments on the proposed rules, and a public hearing is also scheduled for May 9 and 10. Though, you need to register that you're going to attend these sessions if you want to make a public statement. While it's not guaranteed that public comments will drastically change or even stop the regulation from coming out in any form, it's at least a way you can theoretically help shape these rules.

If the rules do pass, what happens then? When are they enforced and what do they actually impact? The rules are set to be the standard for model-year 2027 and on, and apply to light- and medium-duty vehicles. By model-year 2028, the rules kick in for heavy-duty vehicles, too.

In other words, roughly calendar-year 2026 would be the soonest these rules would come into effect and would only impact vehicles that are new and listed as 2027 and 2028 models. No, your clapped-out 1985 Monte Carlo nor your 2023 Dodge Charger SRT Hellcat Redeye nor any vehicle produced before 2026 would not need to meet these standards.

If you have zero plans to buy a new vehicle after 2025, these rules would not affect you. Even if you have circled a date on your calendar sometime post-2026 for purchasing a new car, well, the new rules probably won't affect you (or that new ride) as much as you may think.

What Even Is The Current Standard?

As we sit, emissions standards are set in Tiers, with Tier 3 being the most stringent today; these are then separated into different "Bins." Automakers must ensure a given vehicle they produce does not exceed the emissions set for that car's relevant Bin.

Light duty vehicles from 2017 and up fall into Tier 2; any 2021 model and up is a Tier 3. Given that, we're only going to focus on Tier 3 as the new standards set new maximum emissions outputs. This Tier's Bins are determined by grams/mile of NOx (nitrogen oxides) and NMOG (NonMethane Organic Gas) emissions, measured as a combined maximum.

A Bin 160 vehicle, for example, can only produce 0.160 grams per mile of NOx and NMOG, but it must also only produce a maximum of 4.2 grams per mile of CO (Carbon Monoxide), 0.003 g/mi of particulate matter (PM, aka the "coal" of a diesel truck or other PMs from other carbon fuels), 0.004 g/mi of formaldehyde (HCHO) emissions.

Bin 160 of Tier 3 represents the loosest category set by the EPA; everything else is more stringent. So what keeps an automaker from producing nothing but Bin 160 vehicles in their lineup? That's where the Fleet Average comes in and, as of 2021, all manufacturers must meet an average of 0.03 g/mi of NOx and NMOG across all the vehicles they produce in a year.

On top of that is standard for CO2 emissions, which is measured on g/mi with separate footprint curves for cars and light trucks (this is where your typical SUV, minivan and crossover are classified). Despite having two separate emissions curves, this standard is assigned to the average the entire fleet of a manufacturer makes and can't exceed 161 g/mi.

There are also multipliers and credits that help offset those averages for automakers that include using more efficient technologies, buying carbon credits, and using environmentally more friendly fuels like ethanol on top of producing plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs, which includes hybrids) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). That's how the corn-fuel-burning, 1,000-hp-plus 2023 Dodge Challenger SRT Demon 170 is allowed to be produced. Because the EPA incentives building flex-fuel vehicles—along with other low- and zero-pollution technologies—Dodge's fleet average can be manipulated and a vehicle like the Demon 170 can be produced without any repercussions. Hey, if there isn't a backdoor, subsidy, or other sorts of breaks, it wouldn't be allowed to be a law or rule in the U.S.

What Are The Changes?

In 2026, these new rules would come into effect and reduce all emissions targets by 56 percent. The target fleet average will see the biggest rule change and, in effect, will force automakers to produce more zero-tailpipe-emissions vehicles, which at the moment are primarily electric vehicles. The new Fleet Average targets are 82 grams of CO2 per mile driven by the 2032 model year, NMOG and NOx down to 0.012 g/mi (60 percent less than Tier 3 Fleet Average), PMs down to 0.05 g/mi across the fleet (and potentially leading to Gasoline Particulate Filters, or GPFs), and caps on CO and HCHO emissions with a 1.7 g/mi CO and four g/mi HCHO at 77 degrees fahrenheit, and 10 g/mi of CO at 19.4 degrees. There is still room within that reduction for even more efficient internal-combustion vehicles and that means that automakers will still be able to choose how to comply with these new rules with the new bins for this fourth Tier, should the EPA rules go through as written.

The proposed change to how the curve on emissions are calculated on light-duty vehicles between cars and light trucks was once separate. The new rules changes would make the curve the same between them but with a multiplier added to offset the weight of an AWD system and being able to haul more in both people and cargo. There is also a new minimum and maximum CO2 footprint, measured in square feet and applied to an imaginary box made by where the tires of the vehicle touch the ground.

Section 3.B.4 through 3.B.9 include changes to the credits and treatment of PEVs and FCEVs that OEMs can use to manipulate those averages including the banking and trading of carbon offset credits. The proposal would still allow companies to sell or trade credits (just as Toyota and Tesla have done to help with revenue), but will begin to phase out bonuses for rewarding new technologies like solar roof panels, high-efficiency headlights, and other emissions reducing technologies. One that is rather specific to PEVs is related to the air conditioning system and how it's calculated for both off-cycle, its efficiency, and the type of refrigeration used. The current rule rewards AC systems that use heat pumps and the new version still would, but this new rule would reduce the allowable adjustment.

What About Small Volume Manufacturers Like Ferrari?

Another major change is for Small Volume Manufacturers (SVMs), which are brands like Ferrari, Aston Martin, Lotus, or any manufacturer who produces and sells fewer than 5,000 vehicles per year in America. This rule has been in place since 2012, but SVMs have had their own emissions regulations that are less stringent than those of mainstream OEMs. This is because when the rule was created, PEVs and carbon credits didn't really exist like they do today. Now the EPA is considering bringing SVMs into the primary standards with the understanding that there will be "lead time" for those manufacturers to either adopt emissions reducing powertrains (like going hybrid of full-EV) or purchase enough carbon credits to offset their pollution. From Model Years 2025 to 2026, SVMs will have two to three years of lead time to meet 2023 emissions standards. 2027 to 2028 will need to meet 2025 standards with the same lead time. This all reduces to where, by 2032 and after, SVMs will need to meet 2032 standards with no lead time or exceptions.

What Is The Industry And World At Large Saying?

While these changes to the standards are nothing really that new, these new targets proposed by the EPA are being looked at as "very high," but not impossible. John Bozzella of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation (AAI)—who represents a majority of automakers and suppliers in the U.S. —said in a memo about the proposal, "The question isn't can this be done, it's how fast can it be done, and how fast will depend almost exclusively on having the right policies and market conditions in place to achieve the shared goal of a net zero carbon automotive future."

The United Auto Workers (UAW) union is in full support of the Biden Administration EPA changes, stating in a release, "The United Auto Workers supports the transition to a clean auto industry and has been a proud leader in the fight against climate change. We will carefully review the EPA's proposals and look forward to working with the Biden Administration in pursuit of standards that are good for workers and the environment." Though, the UAW has stated in the past that it is worried about job losses due to a transition to EVs.

In stark contrast to the AAI and UAW, the American Petroleum Institute (API) President and CEO Mike Sommers said in a statement, "This deeply flawed proposal is a major step toward a ban on the vehicles Americans rely on. As proposed, this rule will hurt consumers with higher costs and greater reliance on unstable foreign supply chains."

Even less thrilled were Republicans, particularly one Senator from Wyoming, John Barrasso, who painted this as a ban on internal-combustion vehicles. Nothing in the EPA proposal outright bans ICE-powered cars and trucks. He also added, "The 'electrification of everything' is not a solution. It's a road to higher prices and fewer choices." Of course, he was also the leading Republican to falsely assert the Biden Administration was trying to ban gas stoves not that long ago, so probably take his statement with a grain of salt.

A more moderate response came from another Republican, this time a ranking member of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV). She said in a statement, "These misguided emissions standards were made without considering the supply chain challenges American automakers are still facing, the lack of sufficiently operational electric vehicle charging infrastructure, or the fact that it takes nearly a decade to permit a mine to extract the minerals needed to make electric vehicles, forcing businesses to look to China for these raw materials."

Luke Tonachel, senior director of the clean vehicles and buildings program at the Natural Resources Defense Council—an environmental advocacy group, stated to The New York Times, "If the strongest standards are finalized, it will put the U.S. on a path to end pollution from vehicle tailpipes and that's essential to meeting both our climate and our public health goals."

Other environmental groups welcomed the EPA's proposal, but not all were so happy. Dan Becker, director of the Center for Biological Diversity's Safe Climate Transport Campaign, said the proposal isn't stringent enough and with a statement according to Reuters, "Biden shouldn't let automakers' can't-do attitude sabotage his best shot at cutting carbon emissions."

In The End, How Does This Proposal Actually Affect You?

At this moment, being a proposal, the EPA rules have no bearing on your current ride nor on your future ride—until or if they pass. Assuming they will, these rules would not go into effect until 2026 for the 2027 model year, and even then will only apply to new vehicles.

If the rules go through as proposed—which isn't totally likely, as there is room and time for changes both major and minor—the price of a new vehicle could go up. Given how the changes will be phased in through 2032, however, there should be ample time to adjust supply chains and continue democratizing EV tech to defray any price increases or at least slow them over a long period. But we just don't know right now.

Again, the rules don't ban ICE-powered vehicles and, as written, aren't even requiring GPFs for particulate emissions on gasoline vehicles. There is an expectation that it will come if automakers don't find another way to reduce those emissions without it. However, the rules will influence automakers to potentially produce more fully-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles for the vehicles that make up large portions of their fleet. Then there are the carbon offset credits that are still on the table, if only slightly reduced. If done right, that means there is plenty of room for another insanely ICE-powered Dodge, Ford, or Chevy muscle car or bonkerballs desert romping truck if automakers do their fleet planning right. There is also room for some sort of stupidly powerful supercar with the EPA proposal.

Finally, if you own or want to own a classic or even a neo-classic vehicle, absolutely nothing changes. Well, save for the price as those vehicles become less plentiful due to time, wear, and destruction because of accidents. Your clapped-out 1980s Chevy El Camino or all-original and pristine Hemi-powered 1970s Plymouth 'cuda are safe under these rules. Though, those cars will need to meet whatever emissions standards they were originally built with. Like that SMOG pump you pulled out of your 1969 Chevrolet Camaro. We saw you. Put it back.

Regardless, these rules will change the vehicles you'll buy in the near future, but we're still talking about a span of six to seven full years. Just don't look at it with gloom and doom. Back when the Obama Administration changed the EPA Standards to what we have now, a lot of great and powerful cars emerged from that era, including the 2015 S550 Ford Mustang; the Voodoo-powered Shelby GT350; the 2014 Chevrolet Camaro Z/28 with its LS7 V-8 from the C6 Z06 Corvette; and of course the 2015 Dodge Challenger SRT Hellcat with its 707-hp 6.2-liter supercharged V-8. Basically, don't be so pessimistic about these proposed rules. Your modern muscle cars aren't going anywhere, but they are changing for the better and good of us all.